Chances are increasing for the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression is possible, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Chances were up to 40% for the system to strengthen into a tropical cyclone — which is now Invest 99L — over the next 48 hours, according to the latest advisory.
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate the system today, if necessary, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Most forecast paths show the system moving to the northwest away from the U.S. Southeast. I direct impacts are expected in Florida, according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
A big factor affecting potential development is time. There’s little opportunity for the system to strengthen before it moves back over land sometime Saturday, according to AccuWeather.
If the system hugs the coast instead of moving more northwest over open water, that also could hinder development.
The Hurricane Center also is monitoring two other tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including one east of the British Virgin Islands.
The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Danielle.
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Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 2 a.m. Aug. 19:
What’s out there and where are they?
Gulf of Mexico tropical wave: A broad area of low pressure is emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it continues to produce disorganized showers.
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located near the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s moving to the west at 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the western Atlantic is located east of the British Virgin Islands. It’s moving to the west at 13 mph.
How likely are they to strengthen?
Gulf of Mexico tropical wave: Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late today or on Saturday.
By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 40 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Gulf of Mexico tropical wave: Regardless of development, the main impact from the system is forecast to be locally heavy rain from northeastern Mexico to part of South Texas Saturday and Sunday, according to AccuWeather.
Tropical wave 2: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were reported over eastern Suriname and east of the Leeward Islands Friday.
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the other tropical waves out there.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what’s expected to be an active hurricane season.
Colorado State University’s 2-week forecast for Aug. 18-31
Meteorologists forecast normal hurricane activity over the next two weeks, with a 15% chance of above-normal activity and a 15% chance of below-normal activity.
Tropical cyclone activity is likely to increase later in the period.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
The next five days
See the National Hurricane Center’s five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What’s next?
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